Here are a couple of charts showing the short term behavior of the Las Vegas REO market.

The first shows the Inventory of available REO single family residences listed in the MLS and the number sold in the last 30 days. Note that this statistic requires a week or ten days to fully stablize. Basically the sales trickle in over a period of time rather than appearing on day one.

 

 

The message is obvious. The REO listings are approaching and likely at one month of sales and still going down strongly. Those negative on a recovery are projecting a slug of foreclosures. That would likely manifest itself as a leveling or even increase in the inventory level.

Maintenance of present trends is likely not possible. The inventory is at or close to a month. If it continues the present trend we will soon be to weeks of inventory. There is likely some unsaleable residue in this inventory. So we are within a month or two of a throttled REO sales scenario. They are still coming on the market but at well less than the market demand.

Should be an interesting time.

Let us also look at pricing during this period...

 

This is a 30 day mean and average for the Single Family REOs sold in Las Vegas. The trend is still down though with less slope than earlier periods. Over time we should see if prices stabilize or increase as the inventory drops.

These charts will be updated at least a couple of times a week so we can all watch this unfold.

What is going to happen? Got me...but it should be interesting.

copyright donohueteam 2009